Negotiated risks, on the other hand, are unique. They tend to be large. They are influenced by a customer’s finances, the state of the economy, the hunger of the competition and a dozen other factors. Changing conditions influence the kinds of exposures needed by that customer in any given year. In such situations, end-to-end automation is seldom useful. It is practically impossible to establish underwriting rules where a system can understand, discuss and then deliver customized responses.
Enthusiasts will offer that until Deep Blue beat Garry Kasparov in 1997, we said exactly the same thing about chess. True.
The wonder of artificial intelligence is that it can learn to match or better the human process of judgment. But data crunching, no matter how nimble, requires data. Bridget van Kralingen, senior vice president of IBM Global Business Services, contends that 80 percent of the world’s data is out of reach of traditional computing systems, and that security concerns may keep it that way. The specialty underwriter’s deep-domain experience, therefore, may remain an advantage for some time.
Negotiated insurance is a people business. Specialty underwriters learn to interrogate a risk in part by assessing the character of a company, the quality of its management and the reputation of the partners with whom its executives work. I question whether software alone will do that adequately.
Will artificial intelligence be able to assess the impact of weather six months out on the profit margins of a fixed-price contract? Or notice unsound assumptions in a cashflow projection? Or read non-verbal cues to determine the likely success of a CEO’s plan for growth in an emerging market? Unlikely.
In my view, specialty insurance will long be a domain where human intelligence will be just as important as artificial intelligence. Will specialty underwriters be replaced by computers? Not any time soon. Chess players may be a different story.
Mark Watson has served as President and CEO of Argo Group since 2000 and has been with the company since 1998, when it was Argonaut Group. He can be reached at Argoteam@dittopr.co.